From an inventory perspective, the current absolute value of global metal inventories is low. In the event of sanctions, or expectations of insufficient delivery, metal prices will rise. In addition, after British warehouses banned Russian metals (except Russian nickel) in April, LME's metal inventories were basically concentrated in Asian warehouses, and European warehouse inventories were significantly reduced. Currently, LME global warehouses ban Russian lead, and UK warehouses ban Russian copper, aluminum, and nickel.
After the release of the LME document, Rusal stockholders were eager to deliver a large number of positions before the announcement of the LME discussion results, and the concentrated delivery of positions was very obvious. As of October 19, LME aluminum inventories increased by more than 230,000 tons compared with the end of September, an increase of nearly 70%. Trading giant Glencore is reported to have delivered large quantities of aluminium originating in Russia to LME warehouses in Gwangyang, South Korea. Rusal agreed in April 2020 to sign a long-term contract to supply 6.9 million tonnes of aluminium to London-listed Glencore, of which 344,800 tonnes will be delivered in 2020 and about 1.6 million tonnes per year from 2021-2024.
C The impact of key varieties
aluminum
European electrolytic aluminum producers consume up to 15,500kwh of electricity per ton of aluminum production, which is the highest level of global aluminum energy consumption. The energy shortage in Europe has exacerbated the power shortage, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum has soared. According to data from Macquarie Bank, energy costs currently account for 80% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum production in Europe, and the historical average of this data is 40%.
In comparison, Rusal has a natural advantage in energy. The financial report released by Rusal shows that the company's aluminum production cost in the first half of 2022 is only US$2,028 per ton, far lower than that of countries such as Europe and Asia. Therefore, from a price point of view, the cheaper Rusal is more attractive to downstream aluminum producers.
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