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Europe's Electricity Consumption May Be Worse Next Year Due To The Energy Crisis

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ZMS CABLE
Europe's Electricity Consumption May Be Worse Next Year Due To The Energy Crisis

Three feet of ice is not a day of cold.

Multiple factors have caused Europe to fall into an unprecedented energy crisis this winter.

The reasons for this are the unexpected factors of the Ukraine crisis and sanctions against Russia, which led to a significant reduction in the energy supply.

There is the medium- and long-term structural problem of insufficient electricity supply caused by risky and adventurous green energy transition policies.

There are also spiraling inflation and energy price spikes that push each other upward, bringing extreme market uncertainty.

All of these are testing the ability of EU policymakers to maneuver, and are constantly testing the bottom line of Europeans "freezing" under high electricity prices.

Europe is experiencing a winter without cheap Russian gas.

This means higher electricity prices, energy shortages, soaring prices, and a looming recession.

Russian gas supplies, which are vital for heating, industrial manufacturing, and electricity, have been reduced by more than 80 percent this year.

The consequence is that the highest wholesale prices for electricity and natural gas in Europe have soared by as much as 15 times compared to prices at the beginning of 2021.

This is a huge strain on both the average consumer household and industrial companies, and the problem is getting worse.

 

Why Are European Electricity Prices So High?

Europe currently relies on large quantities of liquefied natural gas trans-shipped from the United States or Asia to replace the original Russian pipeline gas, the cost of which can be imagined.

In addition, it is difficult to compensate for the loss of the Russian gas supply by nuclear or hydro-wind power in a short period.

Even restarting coal power in some EU countries is not enough.

Due to the record cost of electricity, there is a lot of "demand destruction" in Europe.

That is, some consumers are forced to reduce electricity consumption, and high energy-consuming enterprises such as paper, fertilizers, and other enterprises even shut down and bankrupt.

Statistics show that gas demand in Europe fell by nearly a quarter in November compared to the five-year average.

Fundamental structural changes in both supply and demand have caused dramatic market fluctuations.

Power outages have become a nightmare for Europeans this winter.

Almost identical to last year, wind power in Europe has plummeted since the winter, forcing many grids to rely more on gas-fired generation.



Germany Had To Restart Coal Generation.

France is because many nuclear reactors shut down for maintenance, from the export of electricity to imports, and increasingly tight power supply led to soaring electricity prices.

In this case, high electricity prices not only caused some of the energy-intensive industries to shut down and reduce production or even close down, but the people's winter heating burden has also become unbearable.

For local areas such as cold Northern Europe and power shortages in central and Eastern Europe, the possibility of pulling the plug on electricity is very high.

Then Look At How European Countries Cope With Energy Shortages.

To cope with the protest against high prices and energy shortages across Europe, many countries have to take the most direct subsidy approach.

But this is only a stopgap measure, the reason is that the cost is huge.

Up to now, Europe has spent 700 billion euros in subsidies to help families and small companies through the crisis.

A study shows that if national governments fully bear the extra energy costs, the total will reach 1 trillion euros, accounting for about 6% of the EU's GDP, which shows that the huge subsidies are not sustainable.

Large-scale government subsidies will generate more demand for energy and will also require more subsidies.

The debt crisis is bound to repeat itself, which may be a huge blow to the EU struggling to get out of high inflation and recession, and will force the ECB to further tighten its policy.

Moderate Measures May Not Be Enough To Save The Critical Situation.

From the EU level, the member states are currently in dispute on individual issues, though.

For example, negotiations on the gas price cap are long overdue, and each country is going its way on energy subsidies.

Some countries are also adamant about retaining oil supplies from Russian pipelines, but ultimately, a common policy on overall energy security is needed.

In July, member governments pledged to reduce gas demand by 15 percent during the winter.

The action plan approved by the European Council in September includes reducing electricity demand, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises as well as low-income households, and subsidizing energy-intensive enterprises.

Early next year, the European Commission will also propose a structural reform of the European electricity market to decouple electricity prices from natural gas.

At the same time, European governments are already saving themselves.

On the one hand, to mitigate the impact of rising energy prices on consumers and businesses.

Such as setting high revenue ceilings for power generation companies, adjusting tariffs, setting up support programs for energy-intensive companies, providing financial support to public power producers, or even nationalizing them.

On the other hand, various subsidy policies have been introduced aimed at stabilizing and reducing wholesale natural gas prices.

Policies that also actively encourage energy efficiency and limit energy costs, as well as increase supply and ensure energy security.

Finally, Look At The Solutions.

For the moment, the gas reserves in northwestern Europe are more than 95%, which can theoretically support until next March.

The energy crisis is the most urgent and difficult challenge before Europe, and no European country can deal with it alone.

Therefore, the EU wants to find a more reliable path to the security of the energy supply and to solve this crisis once and for all.

We can learn more about why the shortcomings have such a big impact on people's lives by looking specifically at electricity in the home.

Here is how people use electricity in their daily lives.

Lighting Wires In The Home

Lighting wire using 1.5 square.

General household lighting load power is not too large, the dining room, living room, main and secondary bedrooms, balcony, kitchen, and bathroom have almost 6–8 lights,

Control within 1500 watts, with 1.5 square national standard copper wire, is sufficient.

 

Water Heater Socket With Wire

Water heaters are relatively large in household appliances, generally 4 square wire.

4 square copper core wire can allow a maximum of 7000-8000 watts load, the limit value is 8000 watts.

Therefore, even if the water heater or bathtub is turned on at the same time, there will be no big problem, even if the load is overloaded, it will only trip the circuit breaker.

 

Wires Of Air Conditioner Sockets

The air conditioner is also considered a high-powered appliance at home, so the socket also uses a 4-square wire.

Of course, you can also use 6 squares, but this will make the construction more difficult.

The area taken up by the bottom box of the socket will also become larger, and the wiring will become a very troublesome thing.


 

Wires For Ordinary Sockets

A 2.5 sq. ft. wire can be used for ordinary outlets at home, and the general load is controlled within 2500 watts. However, if you often use high-power appliances, it is recommended that you choose a 4-square wire.

 

Wires for kitchen sockets

Kitchen outlets are recommended to use 4 square wire, on the one hand, because of the kitchen appliances, on the other hand, because of the high frequency of use.

Some kitchens have a four-sided line to the top, and then arrange the socket below, with 2.5 square wire to fire.

All outlets are connected separately from the four-sided line, so this practice is also fine.

 

The situation may only get worse next year.

After the collapse of Russian gas exports due to Western sanctions, European countries are racing to conserve energy in the hope of getting through the winter safely.

But the widespread shutdown of France's aging nuclear power plants has exacerbated Europe's tight power supply.

To avoid forced blackouts during the winter peak, EU energy ministers agreed back in late September to reduce electricity use by 10 percent voluntarily and promised a mandatory 5 percent cut during peak monthly hours.

But as things stand now, that doesn't seem to be doing much good.

According to the European Network of Electricity Transmission System Operators (ENTSOE), local electricity consumption is still well below the levels seen in the same period since 2015.

According to ENTSOE's calculations, total consumption in Europe has fallen by 4.3% since September compared to the average level for the same period in 2015-2021.

Fluctuations in electricity consumption can depend on a variety of factors, including unseasonably warm or cold weather, as well as the behavior of consumers and businesses.

It can also reflect economic activity, and a drop in electricity consumption may provide real-time evidence of a decline in output.

In France, where the government has mandated an electricity price increase of just 4 percent this year, electricity consumption fell by 4.4 percent in September.

And in the Netherlands, electricity consumption fell by more than 10 percent as many Dutch energy companies announced price increases for October.

Meanwhile, Germany, Europe's largest electricity market, saw its grid load fall by just 1 percent in September.

But Germany's role as a major electricity transmission country may distort its domestic consumption situation.


ZMS Cable Team

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