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Forecasting the 'whether' with computer modeling

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Alvaro Okajima
Apr 05, 2018 23:25
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How about whether national currency devaluation affects refugee displacement?

A comprehensive model explaining whether these factors relate would require far more data than even the most brilliant minds can imagine and far more imagination than even the most powerful computers can muster.

Thanks to a $2.25 million grant from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University researchers are looking to harmonize the power of computation with the insight of human intuition.

The result would resemble models used by meteorologists to forecast the weather but include complex socioeconomic and geopolitical dynamics.

"We not only consider numerical data but textual data from news sources, reports, and databases to predict future crises."

Dr. Miskov-Zivanov leads as principal investigator on one of eight teams in DARPA's World Modelers program, which will focus primarily on explaining world problems like famine in South Sudan.

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Alvaro Okajima
Apr 05, 2018 23:25
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