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Cups with Handle: Bull Market Indicator

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keshav gupta
Cups with Handle: Bull Market Indicator

William J.O'Neil, an American technician in one of his books, named "How to Make Money in Stocks," defined Cups and Handle. A cup with a handle shaped chart indicating the flow of trend is termed as Cups and Handle technical chart pattern. Let's be more practical and look at the cup you daily drink tea/coffee in. That's the same way a Cups and Handle chart pattern appears, considered a bullish signal; the pattern formation could be short or long. This type of bullish signal is used to spot the opportunities in the long run.

The old technique has evolved more with time, adding more patterns in all time frames. But, still, some of the traders adhere to O'Neil's rules.

What do they say ? 

A stock forming pattern indicates a trend, and with a Cup and Handle, the uptrend could be known. The pattern shows the incurring selling pressure from investors who bought them previously. The selling pressure makes price consolidate with a tendency of the downtrend for days or weeks before it booming high. The chart pattern helps in identifying the buying opportunities.

 Things to keep in mind when observing Cup and Handle pattern:

  • Cups with long ‘u’ indicate a strong signal to invest. ( V shape should be avoided)
  • The handles should not be more than one-third of the cup; more deep handles should be neglected. 
  • The handle should be formed at the top and not at the bottom. 
  • Volume should decrease with price and increase when the price goes higher. 
  • Volume should be at the base before starting to rise again. 
  • The price increases when stock again moves towards a high trend as the previous high. 
  • The further away the handle is from the highs, the more significant the breakout point needs to be. 
  • Stop buy orders should be placed slightly high from the handle.
  • Observe and study the pattern 
  • Analyse

How does the Candle and Handle Pattern work?

A stock pattern should be analysed carefully; if in the study of the pattern you find a long ‘U’ formation, then stop and examine. The shape formed should resemble a cup with equal highs on both sides of the pattern. However, after the highs on the right-hand side of the cup, there is a sudden low and up high again forming the handle. The handle represents the consolidation before the breakout point. The handle should not be more than one-third of the cup.

A breakout is just above the handle formation when the trend starts to move upwards. This uptrend earns profits for investors. The breakout should occur with an increased volume. The trend should not be too mature, as it decreases the chance of a breakout point.

The target is the estimate of the advance by calculating the distance between the bottom of the cup to the right side top.

For instance, an asset cup forms between $89 to $90, then the handle formation should be around $90 to $89.6. Therefore, the handle is one-third and not more, or the profit is erased.

Stop-Loss and Target

A stop-loss is required when the stock price is expected to rise after the handle formation, but the stocks move sideways or rise and fall. Stop-loss helps traders come out of the trade after the sudden fall of stocks. In addition, they are serving as a risk controller by selling the position.

Place the stop-loss below the bottom of the handle when the prices fluctuate up and down a lot. If the stop-loss is below the halfway point of the cup, then the trade should be avoided. Stop-loss should be in the upper third part of the cup to manage the risk.

Target is the double of the cup height; when cup height is added to the breakout point of the handle, it becomes the target. So, for example, if the cup forms at 50 to 51 and the breakout point is 51, then the target would be 52.

When the sides of the cup are different, smaller heights should be taken for conservative targets and larger ones for aggressive targets.

Stop-loss represents the risk and target the rewards.

Limitations of Cup and Handle

Cup and handle is an old technique that requires some changes with time. It has some drawbacks; firstly, the trader has to wait for the entire formation of the pattern, leading to late decisions. Second, the pattern forms, and if the trader quickly decides without analysing, then this quick move could come out as an expensive one—a time-consuming process as it takes a day, month or year. Lastly, Cup and Handle could be pretty unreliable patterns in non-liquid stocks.

Conclusion

A chart pattern with lows and highs, Cup and Handle, is a technical way of calculating the stock price. It is a reliable way to know about the trends of the stock market. A trader needs to regularly observe the pattern and have a good understanding of stocks. The market is volatile, leading to ups and downs every moment, so have a deep knowledge of the chart pattern. Though it has some drawbacks, there is still no better pattern to read the uptrend and earn profits quickly. Regular observation of the stock market and practices saves the trader's time and increases the power of quick decisions. An excellent source to have the technical knowledge and gain profits.

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