In an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly, Earth System scientist Dr. Hesham El-Askary raised concerns that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) cannot hold the targeted 74 bcm of Blue Nile water.
Dr. El-Askary is a renowned Egyptian researcher, speaker, author, editor, and professor. He is a Professor of Remote Sensing and Earth System Science position. He was formerly the vice president of the Egyptian Space Agency for Projects and Space Missions in Egypt. Dr. El-Askary is an accomplished Earth Scientist specializing in studying natural hazards using various remote sensing technologies and data sciences.
Dr. El-Askary has published over 100 academic journal articles, books, and publications, including “An Assessment of the Filling Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and its Impact on the Downstream Countries.” The study was conducted by ten researchers from different universities under the supervision of Dr. El-Askary, and it raised several concerns over the pressure-handling capacity of the Nile Dam. It was published in the renowned American Journal of Remote Sensing.
Let’s understand the whole scenario and the threats related to it. For the past ten years, negotiations about the GERD have occurred between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. Ethiopia insisted on building a dam on the Blue Nile River for economic development because it intended to generate enormous power for its population. On the other hand, Egypt considered this dam a safety threat as it would render its primary water resource. Rain and other water reservoirs fulfill only 3% of the water need for Egypt, and the rest of 97% depends on the river Nile. Furthermore, Sudan had similar concerns about the safety and impact of the Nile dam on its population.
Analyzing this political, economic, and developmental rift between these three neighboring countries sharing the river Nile, Dr. El-Askary and his research team began their investigation. He aimed to work on the issue of the first filling of the dam because Ethiopia did so without consulting with Egypt and Sudan, which was against the Declaration of Principles on the GERD (2015). Dr. El-Askary doubted the project when Ethiopia claimed the second successful filling of the dam.
The research team took satellite images of the Nile Dam and concluded that Ethiopian claims were fallacious since the dam’s construction was still in progress. In an interview, Dr. El-Askary quoted:
“Based on the satellite images we got, this was entirely untrue. Ethiopia had not completed the construction of the dam and could not have possibly attained its filling target.”
The research team analyzed data and satellite images, both past and present, to confirm the water levels during the second filling of the GERD. These findings revealed that Ethiopia’s claims of higher water rates were inaccurate. The team also studied river flow data, which indicated heavy rainfall during the second filling. However, Ethiopia could not meet its target due to construction delays on the dam, as confirmed by the research team’s investigation.
The dam’s structure was another glitch in the project. According to Dr. El-Askary, the design was weak to prevent the acceleration of water storage. After the region’s geological characteristics, the team found that the Earth’s crust below the dam was fragile and had rifts, which was a safety threat specifically for Sudan. Dr. El-Askary questioned on the dam’s safety:
“If Ethiopia were to store 74 bcm of water in the GERD reservoir, Sudan would be removed from the face of the Earth if a tsunami hit the Ethiopian highlands or the dam collapsed. It is not acceptable to sacrifice the lives of 110 million people under the pretext of the development and prosperity of the Ethiopian nation.”
The image above highlights the Nile Dam’s spatial extent and depicts the total extent of the increased reservoir area obtained from the digital elevation model (DEM).
Moreover, Dr. El-Askary even questioned the approval of such a risky project. He asked about the validity of research done by the company and the Ethiopian government for constructing the GERD. He wondered how the Ethiopian people’s money was being spent on building this mega-dam without conducting the proper geological studies.
Moreover, Dr. El-Askary’s team conducted another study on the Hydrogen Cycle, especially given the effects of El Niño, or the thermal difference between the oceans and the atmosphere that controls the river flow of the Nile. The study concluded that a dry spell would hit the Ethiopian highlands at some point when rain will become scarce, and this will also affect the GERD’s storage capacities.
This study became an eye-opener for officials of Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. It also became breakthrough research in Dr. El-Askary’s career. He did several Earth science researches in the past and significantly contributed to the world’s safety. In 2020, he was appointed Regional Coordinator in a €3 million project, “GEO-CRADLE,” exclusively supervised by the European Union’s Horizon. The project was established to understand the modern Earth observation activities in North Africa, the Middle East, and the Balkans and to develop links with GEO-related initiatives toward GEOSS.
Dr. Hesham El-Askary is one of the most esteemed Earth scientists who has studied natural hazards using remote sensing technologies and data sciences. He explores extreme events, air pollution problems over megacities, climate change, and its impacts on sea level rise and coral reefs for coastal areas.
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Lionel Messi was born on June 24, 1987, He is an Argentine footballer who is currently playing for Argentina and Barcelona...
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